What are prediction markets?
Prediction markets let you bet real money or crypto on future events. You buy shares that pay out $1 if your prediction is right, $0 if wrong. The market price shows what people think will actually happen.
You can trade on elections, sports games, crypto prices, current events, and more. It's like the stock market, but for forecasting real-world outcomes.
Why WhereToPredict?
Finding the right prediction market can be confusing. Some platforms only work in certain countries. Others require crypto wallets or specific payment methods. Many don't accept US users at all.
WhereToPredict helps you compare all major prediction market platforms in one place. Filter by payment type, location access, and features to find markets that actually work for you.
How to choose a prediction market platform
Different platforms work better for different people. Here's what matters:
Payment options - Some accept crypto (USDC, ETH), others take credit cards or bank transfers. A few use play money if you just want to practice.
Where you live - US users need CFTC-regulated platforms like Kalshi or international crypto markets like Polymarket. Other countries have more options.
What you can bet on - Sports-focused platforms like Azuro cover games and matches. General markets like Polymarket have politics, business, and entertainment. Political markets like PredictIt focus on elections and policy.
KYC requirements - Regulated platforms need ID verification. Some crypto markets let you trade anonymously.
Popular prediction market platforms
Polymarket - Largest platform by volume, runs on Polygon blockchain, uses USDC. Covers politics, sports, crypto, and current events.
Kalshi - Only CFTC-regulated market in the US. Takes bank deposits and credit cards. Now available through Robinhood.
Manifold Markets - Play money only, no real cash. Good for practicing or just tracking your predictions.
Drift BET - Built on Solana, accepts 30+ different crypto tokens. Fast growing with low fees.
Metaculus - Reputation-based forecasting. No money involved, just tracking accuracy over time.
Use WhereToPredict's filters to see which platforms accept your payment method and work in your country.
Crypto vs traditional prediction markets
Crypto markets use blockchain and stablecoins like USDC. They're usually permissionless (no KYC), have global access, and settle instantly on-chain. Examples: Polymarket, Hedgehog, Drift.
Traditional markets use regular money through banks or cards. They're regulated by governments, require ID verification, but are often easier for beginners. Examples: Kalshi, PredictIt, Robinhood.
Play money markets don't use real cash at all. You bet with points or fake currency. Good for learning without risk. Examples: Manifold, Metaculus.
Are prediction markets legal?
In the US, you need a CFTC-regulated platform like Kalshi for legal real-money betting. Some crypto platforms operate offshore and block US users. Others allow VPN access but you're taking legal risk.
Outside the US, most countries treat prediction markets like online betting or financial trading. Check your local gambling and securities laws.
Play money markets are legal everywhere since there's no real money changing hands.
WhereToPredict shows which platforms are legal in different regions so you can make informed choices.
Tips for using prediction markets
Start small while you learn how markets work. Prices change fast when news breaks.
Check the resolution criteria before betting. Make sure you understand exactly what outcome you're betting on.
Compare prices across platforms. The same event might have different odds on Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Manifold. WhereToPredict makes it easy to see all your options.
Don't bet more than you can afford to lose. These are real financial markets with real risk.
Why prediction markets work
When people bet their own money, they research and think carefully. This creates prices that often predict better than polls or experts.
The 2024 election showed prediction markets beating traditional forecasters. Polymarket, Kalshi, and others got state results more accurate than Nate Silver's model.
Markets aggregate information from thousands of traders. Someone who knows something puts their money where their mouth is.
